The Covid-19 crisis and the disruption of the international order: the pandemic as hegemonic shock in the dispute between United States and China

Abstract

The competition between powers to consolidate a hegemonic position on the international scene has been a recurrent object of study in International Relations, giving rise to numerous analyses of the evolution of the phenomenon of global hegemony. The global Covid-19 crisis has introduced a new element into the analysis of relations between states, as it has revealed the asymmetries that exist not only in managing the pandemic, but also in acquiring and/or maintaining a dominant position on the current geopolitical chessboard. This disruptive event has affected the competitive relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China, players who were engaged in a strategic competition for global hegemony. With this starting point, the direction of our research hypothesizes that the pandemic has been a determining element in the evolution and intensification of the competition for hegemony between the United States and the People's Republic of China. If up to now hegemonic disputes have been resolved through conflicts between contenders or in the context of war, in our opinion the pandemic could be a disruptive element that determines the evolution of the US-China competition and conditions which actor will be hegemonic and which model of hegemony will be implemented in the long term.

With this starting point, we will elaborate a theoretical framework to understand the phenomena of the rise and fall of hegemonic powers. Starting from a theoretical approach to hegemony, we will include elements of analysis that will allow a deeper understanding of how disputes in the field of hegemony take place at present. In line with this objective, the key elements we will use will be: the theory of complex interdependence developed by Joseph Nye and Robert Keohane, the importance of the post-war international system, Seva Gunitsky's conceptualization of hegemonic shocks, and the influence that the nuclear variable has on the current geopolitical chessboard.

Going deeper into the theoretical realm, authors such as Wallerstein or Agnew contribute to establishing the basis for understanding hegemony at a conceptual level. However, hegemony does not take a simple definition as it is part of an adaptive process. Due to this adaptability, authors such as Kindleberger or Gilpin offer us a starting point to understand how hegemonic transitions take place and provide us with tools to understand these processes. Although the authors of reference in the field of international politics offer us a solid basis for understanding the processes of hegemony, it is necessary to bring to the discussion the current debates on this object of study. Therefore, these analyses will be complemented by current authors, where we highlight mainly two: Graham Allison and Seva Gunitsky. With regard to Allison's contribution, we will briefly analyze his theorization of the Thucydides Trap and consider whether a conventional war between powers aspiring to conquer hegemony is still inevitable today. In the case of Gunitsky, we will focus on his conceptualization of hegemonic shocks, arguing from a scientific point of view that disputes between great powers do not necessarily end in a conventional war, but these shocks are the elements that end up facilitating hegemonic transitions.

Subsequently, we will analyze the influence of three elements that in our opinion are conditioning processes of hegemony and conditioning hegemonic transitions at the present time. These three elements are: the post-war international system, complex interdependence and the nuclear capability of states. These three elements limit the ability of the great powers to initiate a conventional war between the hegemon and the contenders. The international system establishes a unity of action between the United States and Europe that different countries respect or fear to challenge, while economic, political and social dependencies result in reciprocal effects in case of conventional war and the nuclear variable discourages war between nuclear powers due to Mutually Assured Destruction. These elements condition the current disputes between the United States and China, forcing both contenders to seek new strategies to advance in the consolidation of a dominant position. In addition, these limitations mean that the hegemonic shocks theorized by Gunitsky become a key element in understanding how hegemonic disputes are currently settled.

After providing sufficient theoretical elements to understand the current global situation, we will move on to the empirical part by analyzing three areas in order to conclude whether the pandemic has been a determining factor between the two actors. Understanding the complexity of operationalizing concepts such as hegemony and hegemonic disputes, it is essential to provide our research with empirical elements. Therefore, the theoretical analysis will be complemented with the analysis of quantitative and qualitative variables to confirm or refute our hypothesis. To do so, we will start with a comparative analysis between the United States and China in the economic sphere to determine to what extent the pandemic has affected competition between both actors and we will analyze the evolution of the pandemic data in both countries. We will analyze various economic aspects because an intensification of economic disputes is a symptom of the hegemon's loss of power, and we will be able to observe whether its economic supremacy is threatened by China. After focusing on economic variables, it is essential to analyze the infections and deaths caused by Covid-19.  This is due to the fact that the internal management of the pandemic is an element of great importance since, in addition to measuring the capacities of the health systems, it contributes to offer an image of leadership and a reference to the rest of the actors. Finally, after addressing the empirical data, we will analyze the diplomatic strategies that both actors have used in dealing with the global crisis. While measurable data may reflect certain objectifiable trends regarding the impact of Covid-19 on the U.S.-China dispute, analysis of the diplomatic strategies developed by both actors is also important. At this point, we will analyze those carried out by the United States and China, focusing mainly on Beijing's strategy because it has proved to be a more complex. For this purpose, we will analyze the coronavirus diplomacy developed by Beijing, establishing itself as a major supplier of medical supplies globally and the enhancement of its soft power following its response to the coronavirus crisis. In the case of the United States, we will focus more briefly on the communicative strategy followed by the Trump administration after the outbreak of the crisis.