Keywords:
Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, Middle East, nuclear deterrence, NWFZ, international diplomacy,Copyright (c) 2020 Daniel Rajmil
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Abstract
The historic approval in July 2017 of a treaty banning nuclear arms, despite the complex nature of such an agreement, could represent a significant stride towards the worldwide elimination of the-se weapons. In addition, it reinforced the conviction that NWFZs (Nuclear Weapons Free Zones) can contribute to the success of complex regional disarmament processes, as in the Middle East. This study aims to present an exploratory analysis of the Middle Eastern vote and the respective political views exhibited by the countries of the region during the United Nations treaty negotia-tions, from the treaty-drafting negotiations to the final vote. In an uncertain global context of re-emergent deterrence policies, a review of the possible limitation of nuclear weapons through a regional case offers an interesting insight into the state of current international affairs.
Downloads
References
ABE, Nobuyasu (2010): “The current problems of the NPT: how to strengthen the non-proliferation regime", Strategic Analysis, Vol. 34, No. 2, pp. 212-224. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09700160903554265
ABOUL-ENEIN, Sameh (2017): “Toward a non-nuclear world: The NPT regime-nuclear disarmament and the challenge of a WMDFZ in the Middle East”, International Journal of Nuclear Security, Vol. 3, No. 2, article 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7290/ijns030105
ALY, HossamEldy (1999): The deterrence potential of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the Arab-Israeli Enduring Rivalry, PhD thesis, Universität Wien, p 9.
ALY, HossamEldy: “A Middle Eastern WMD-free zone: objectives and approaches of Arab States”, ArmsControl, April 2012, available at https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2012_04/A_Middle_Eastern_WMD-Free_Zone_Objectives_and_Approaches_of_Arab_States [accessed: July 2017].
COHEN, Avner (1998): Israel and the bomb, New York, Colombia University Press.
DAVENPORT, Kelsey: “Facts sheet and briefs”, ArmsControl, December 2018 (last modified), available at https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/mewmdfz [accessed: July 2017] .
EGELAND, Kjølv (2019): “Arms, influence and the Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons”, Survival, Vol. 61, No. 3, pp. 57-80. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2019.1614786
FAWCETT, Louise: “Security regionalisms: lessons from around the world”, RSCAS EUI Working Paper, No. 62, July 2013, available at https://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/27701/RSCAS_2013_62.pdf?sequence=1 [accessed: March 2019].
ICAN. “2017. Positions on the Treaty”, ICAN, available at http://www.icanw.org/why-a-ban/positions/ [accessed: March 2018].
KANE, Chen (2011): “The role of civil societies in promoting a NWFZ in the Middle East”, United Nations Institute for Disarmament ResearchPaper, No. 2. https://www.unidir.org/files/publications/pdfs/nuclear-weapon-free-zones-en-314.pdf [accessed: April 2018].
LANDAU, B. Emily (2012): “When neorealism meets the Middle East: Iran´s pursuit of nuclear weapons in (regional context)”, INSS Strategic Assessment, Vol. 15, No. 3, pp 26-27.
MECKLIN, John (ed.): “2020 Doomsday Clock Statement”, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, January 2020, available at https://thebulletin.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/2020-Doomsday-Clock-statement.pdf [accessed: January 2020].
NATO: “Press statement”, Nato website, 7th September 2017, available at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_146954.htm#:~:text=North%20Atlantic%20Council%20Statement%20on%20the%20Treaty%20on%20the%20Prohibition%20of%20Nuclear%20Weapons,-20%20Sep.&text=At%20Warsaw%20in%20July%202016,nuclear%20deterrence%20and%20nuclear%20disarmament%3A&text=We%20regret%20that%20the%20conditions,disarmament%20are%20not%20favourable%20today.%E2%80%9D [accessed: April 2019].
ONDERCO, Michal (2017): “Why nuclear weapon ban treaty is unlikely to fulfill its promise”, Global Affairs, No. 6, pp. 391-404. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23340460.2017.1409082.
PERMANENT REPRESENTATIVES TO THE UNITED NATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, UNITED KINGDOM AND FRANCE: “Joint Press Statement from the Permanent Representatives to the United Nations of the United States, United Kingdom and France”, 7th July 2017, available at https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7892 [accessed on july 2017] [accessed: July 2017].
RAJMIL, Daniel (2015): “The Middle East: deterrence and nuclear deterrence”, Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos = Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies, Vol. 6, No. 6, pp. 394-414.
REVIEW AND EXTENSION CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES TO THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (1995): “Final document”, NPT CONF. 1995/32, available at https://undocs.org/pdf?symbol=en/NPT/CONF.1995/32(PARTI) [accessed: July 2017].
REVIEW CONFERENCE OF THE PARTIES TO THE TREATY ON THE NON-PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS (2010): “Final document”, NPT/CONF 2010/50, available at https://www.un.org/en/conf/npt/2010/ [accessed: July 2017].
ROSEN, Steven J. (1977): “A stable system of mutual nuclear deterrence in the Arab-Israeli conflict”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 71, No. 4, pp. 1367-1383. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1961485
ROTH-SNIR, Alon: “2017. Statement by Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs, Amb.Alon Roth-Snir, exposed during the First Committee of the 72nd UN General Assembly”, October 2017, available at https://s3.amazonaws.com/unoda-web/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/statement-by-israel.pdf [accessed: April 2018].
SOKOLSKI, Henry (2004): Getting MAD: nuclear mutual assured destruction, its origins and practice, Michigan, University of Michigan Library.
STEIN, Janice Gross (1992): “Deterrence and Compellence in the Gulf, 1990-91: A Failed or Impossible Task?”,International Security, Vol. 17, No. 2, pp. 147-179. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2539171
UNITED NATIONS: “Treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons”, United Nations Treaty series, 7th July 2017, available at https://treaties.un.org/doc/Treaties/2017/07/20170707%2003-42%20PM/Ch_XXVI_9.pdf [accessed: March 2018].
UNITED NATIONS. GENERAL ASSEMBLY: “Conference to negotiate legally binding instrument banning nuclear weapons adopts treaty by 122 votes in favour, 1 against, 1 abstention”, DC/3723, 7th July 2017, available at https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/dc3723.doc.htm [accessed: September 2017].
UNITED NATIONS. GENERAL ASSEMBLY: "Draft treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons“. A/CONF.229/2017/L.3/Rev.1, 7th July 2017, available at https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/1291023/files/A_CONF-229_2017_L-3_Rev-1-EN.pdf [accessed: July 2017].
UNITED NATIONS. GENERAL ASSEMBLY: “Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016”, A/RES/71/258, 11th January 2017, available at http://undocs.org/A/RES/71/258 [accessed: July 2017].
WALTZ, Kenneth N. (2016): “Why Iran should get the bomb: nuclear balancing would mean stability”, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 4, pp. 2-5, available at https://www.jstor.org/stable/23218033?seq=1